Highlights from today's reports on inflation:
1. The BLS reported an annual inflation rate of 2.9% through February, matching the rate from January. The annual core inflation rate was 2.2%, slightly lower than the 2.3% rate in January.
2. Gasoline prices rose by 6% for the month of February and by 12.6% over the last year. Partly offsetting those increases were decreases in natural gas prices: -3.4% for the month, and -9.8% for the last year.
3. The Cleveland Fed's median CPI inflation increased by 2.3% over the year, down slightly from 2.4% in January.
4. The Cleveland Fed also reported that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.38%, up just slightly from 1.34% last month (see chart above). The Cleveland Fed provides monthly estimates of expected inflation over time horizons from 1 to 30 years, see its methodology here. Over the next year, inflation expectations are 1.2% and over the next 30 years only 1.95%.
Bottom Line: Except for gasoline prices, there don't appear to be any widespread inflationary pressures building in the economy, and expectations of future inflation according to the Cleveland Fed's model are falling.
1. The BLS reported an annual inflation rate of 2.9% through February, matching the rate from January. The annual core inflation rate was 2.2%, slightly lower than the 2.3% rate in January.
2. Gasoline prices rose by 6% for the month of February and by 12.6% over the last year. Partly offsetting those increases were decreases in natural gas prices: -3.4% for the month, and -9.8% for the last year.
3. The Cleveland Fed's median CPI inflation increased by 2.3% over the year, down slightly from 2.4% in January.
4. The Cleveland Fed also reported that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.38%, up just slightly from 1.34% last month (see chart above). The Cleveland Fed provides monthly estimates of expected inflation over time horizons from 1 to 30 years, see its methodology here. Over the next year, inflation expectations are 1.2% and over the next 30 years only 1.95%.
Bottom Line: Except for gasoline prices, there don't appear to be any widespread inflationary pressures building in the economy, and expectations of future inflation according to the Cleveland Fed's model are falling.
